Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 1.052062 1.106092 1.161854 1.223811 1.290855 1.361357 1.441284
2025-12-28 0.975571 1.053452 1.137149 1.234223 1.344268 1.465808 1.611116
2026-01-04 0.914062 1.004754 1.104912 1.224568 1.364753 1.525201 1.724817
2026-01-11 0.879256 0.980778 1.095468 1.235962 1.405302 1.605311 1.863261
2026-01-18 0.845757 0.954844 1.080411 1.237501 1.431490 1.666962 1.980512
2026-01-25 0.827982 0.945459 1.083112 1.258846 1.481056 1.758210 2.139422
2026-02-01 0.790449 0.910078 1.052086 1.236112 1.472962 1.774529 2.199843
2026-02-08 0.752087 0.871784 1.015400 1.203834 1.449985 1.768926 2.228551
2026-02-15 0.727471 0.849202 0.996901 1.193242 1.453802 1.797819 2.305386
2026-02-22 0.709951 0.834571 0.987472 1.193422 1.471157 1.845017 2.410340
2026-03-01 0.686134 0.811046 0.965667 1.176136 1.463664 1.856857 2.463612
2026-03-08 0.657739 0.780755 0.934057 1.144422 1.434691 1.836536 2.466636
2026-03-15 0.639579 0.763633 0.919686 1.136255 1.439322 1.866274 2.551332
2026-03-22 0.629697 0.756870 0.918583 1.145962 1.469440 1.934665 2.702087
2026-03-29 0.613291 0.740982 0.904723 1.137329 1.472591 1.962809 2.789874
2026-04-05 0.605179 0.735635 0.904584 1.147526 1.503184 2.033729 2.953901
2026-04-12 0.594306 0.726213 0.898509 1.148903 1.520530 2.084846 3.088335
2026-04-19 0.590470 0.725994 0.904813 1.167989 1.565075 2.181239 3.311304
2026-04-26 0.573018 0.706883 0.884481 1.147660 1.548348 2.177588 3.351830
2026-05-03 0.553442 0.684419 0.858891 1.118761 1.517095 2.148304 3.341860
2026-05-10 0.541368 0.671894 0.846797 1.109269 1.515611 2.168174 3.426719
2026-05-17 0.533085 0.664334 0.841404 1.109430 1.529184 2.213907 3.565745
2026-05-24 0.520068 0.649926 0.825932 1.093930 1.516990 2.214649 3.614897